Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
02 0x024a…5180 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$258 (-5%) realized −$256 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$353
14 days−$633
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$633
other 7% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.7% -39.1% 29% 29% -72.4%
≤30d 47 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 36% -25.4%
≤90d 47 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 36% -25.4%
all 47 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 36% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 36% -25.4%
10% -18.6% 32% -32.5%
15% -26.5% 32% -39.1%
20% -33.7% 28% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$78 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage14d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $237 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $156 −$25 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$66 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $79 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $329 −$315 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $207 +$46 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $261 +$31 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $195 −$185 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $157 +$256 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $157 +$292 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $208 +$80 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $157 −$25 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $105 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $197 −$125 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $185 −$175 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $79 +$112 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $53 +$192 +362%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $63 +$252 +402%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $53 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $79 +$96 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$50 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$21 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $14 +$46 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $84 −$40 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$86 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$54 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $92 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $140 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $83 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $93 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.48 · official $348.48 (match) · 151 history records