Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0248…7d45 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
other 30% $0
politics 14% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.6% -8.0% 67% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 0% -9.1%
all 38 +0.4% -9.1% 34% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage267d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $62 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $23 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 10 $1 $0 -13%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 25 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $1 $0 +31%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $22 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $29 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $29 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $28 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.65 · official $28.65 (match) · 117 history records