Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x0247…ba82 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 687d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$16
other 3% −$52
world 1% $0
sports 0% −$9
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +27.9% +15.7% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤30d 2 +27.9% +15.7% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 2 +27.9% +15.7% 50% 50% -9.8%
all 16 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 12% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 12% -10.7%
10% -38.2% 12% -19.2%
15% -44.2% 12% -27.0%
20% -49.7% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

687d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage687d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,803 −$8 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Jun 23 $4 +$2 +56%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $3,500 −$4 -0%
Rockets vs. Heat Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Oct 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 16 $10 −$8 -82%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 03 $50 +$3 +6%
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 22 $10 −$6 -65%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $3 +$3 +101%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Sep 01 $10 $0 -2%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Aug 17 $50 −$3 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Aug 17 $50 $0 -0%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? Aug 17 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $1,795 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1,803 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,496 114d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3,500 114d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $25 114d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 64¢ $4 114d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Rockets 58¢ $3 114d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY No 60¢ $4 258d
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 491d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 570d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 578d
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 578d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 649d
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 649d
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 659d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 659d
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 674d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 674d
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 13¢ $47 674d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? SELL No 92¢ $50 674d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? BUY No 92¢ $50 686d
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 686d
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 686d
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 686d
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 686d
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? SELL Yes 99¢ $401 686d
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? BUY Yes 99¢ $402 686d
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? SELL Yes 99¢ $402 686d
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? BUY Yes 99¢ $404 686d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.26 · official $27.26 (match) · 37 history records