Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x0246…7fc1
sports · 9 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$23 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage26d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$45
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 88¢ 100¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+14%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 72¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $51 +$23 +46%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $79 −$7 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $55 +$42 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $15 2h
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 88¢ $36 2h
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 97¢ $74 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 86¢ $40 5d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 65¢ $51 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $12 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $64 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 34¢ $34 14d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $55 16d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 51¢ $72 16d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 43¢ $63 18d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 33% -26.7%
≤30d 7 -24.3% -31.5% 43% 43% -10.4%
≤90d 7 -24.3% -31.5% 43% 43% -10.4%
all 7 -24.3% -31.5% 43% 43% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 43% -10.4%
10% -38.1% 29% -19.0%
15% -44.1% 29% -26.8%
20% -49.6% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.67 · official $71.67 (match) · 18 history records