Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x0243…8ccc other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,424 (+95%) realized +$4,424 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate90%19W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$4,426
crypto 1% +$1
other 1% −$4
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 4 +22.7% +11.0% 100% 50% -0.1%
≤90d 4 +22.7% +11.0% 100% 50% -0.1%
all 21 +16.7% +5.6% 90% 38% +76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 38% +76.5%
10% -4.5% 38% +59.7%
15% -13.8% 29% +44.2%
20% -22.2% 19% +30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$3 · ×77.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×738.29 per $1 lost it wins $738.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$4,424
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses19 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage198d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? May 19 $3 +$1 +48%
Pelicans vs. Raptors May 19 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 7 be between 2,200,0 Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Mar 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 24 $1 $0 +1%
Nets vs. Magic Feb 24 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Feb 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bulls vs. Raptors Feb 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Feb 24 $10 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 Dec 12 $997 +$920 +92%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5 Dec 12 $1,031 +$939 +91%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Dec 12 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 Dec 12 $1,500 +$1,561 +104%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Dec 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025? Dec 11 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 53m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 53m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 54m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 54m
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 12¢ $3 55m
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 42¢ $3 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 97¢ $40 26d
Pelicans vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 72¢ $7 80d
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 98d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 7 be between 2,200,0 BUY No 37¢ $3 98d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 98d
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 98d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $2 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? BUY No 99¢ $10 129d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $15 129d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? BUY No 95¢ $5 129d
Bulls vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 75¢ $5 129d
Nets vs. Magic BUY Magic 80¢ $4 129d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil BUY Yes 99¢ $1 151d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5 BUY Over 53¢ $19 185d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5 BUY Over 53¢ $325 185d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5 BUY Over 52¢ $687 185d
Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 52¢ $997 185d
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,500 185d
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $1,000 187d
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 197d
Nothing Ever Happens: November BUY Yes 98¢ $1 197d
Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.87 · official $13.87 (match) · 49 history records