Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0243…fd45 sports 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$171 (-0%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate84%107W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$20
14 days+$42
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$74
other 15% +$22
crypto 0% −$67
finance 0% −$9
politics 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 6% -9.4%
≤30d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 95 -3.7% -12.8% 87% 5% -9.4%
all 127 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 9% -9.5%
10% -15.2% 6% -18.2%
15% -23.4% 6% -26.1%
20% -30.9% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses107 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$448
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 16 $2,012 +$2 +0%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 16 $1,440 +$1 +0%
ITF Klagenfurt: Dominik Recek vs Justas Trainauskas Jun 16 $2,747 +$3 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 16 $528 +$1 +0%
ITF Men Doboj: Completed Match: Gilberto Ravasio vs John Hallquist Lit Jun 16 $718 +$1 +0%
ITF Women Gaborone: Completed Match: Abigayel Vosloo vs Leilany Ipunes Jun 16 $472 $0 +0%
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $319 $0 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 16 $370 $0 +0%
Kraus vs. Akugue: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $293 $0 +0%
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $338 $0 +0%
StarCraft II: Cure vs sOs - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $542 +$1 +0%
ITF Women Gaborone: Completed Match: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colal Jun 16 $376 +$1 +0%
Kraus vs. Akugue: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $269 $0 +0%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Katarina Kujovic Jun 15 $1,354 +$1 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Kraus vs Akugue Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
ITF Estepona: Isabel Pascual Montalvo vs Zuzanna Pawlikowska Jun 12 $986 +$1 +0%
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 10 $812 +$1 +0%
ITF Changwon: Dayeon Back vs Su Jeong Jang Jun 09 $8 +$6 +75%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $85 $0 +0%
Kraus vs. Akugue: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $253 $0 +0%
Norrie vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $209 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 07 $1,587 +$2 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 07 $361 $0 +0%
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $290 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Completed Match: Anna-Lena Friedsam Jun 07 $148 $0 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 07 $135 $0 +0%
Friedsam vs. Zidansek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 07 $589 +$1 +0%
ITF Men Klagenfurt: Completed Match: Dominik Recek vs Justas Trainausk Jun 07 $338 $0 +0%
Llaneros FC vs. CA Bucaramanga: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $427 $0 +0%
ITF Women Estepona: Completed Match: Isabel Pascual Montalvo vs Zuzann Jun 07 $319 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zidansek (-1.5) vs Friedsam (+1.5) Jun 07 $196 $0 +0%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 07 $300 $0 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 07 $286 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? Jun 07 $304 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? Jun 07 $364 $0 +0%
Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 07 $269 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) Jun 07 $189 +$1 +0%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $295 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Evo Novo vs WAZABI - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $138 $0 +0%
ITF Gaborone: Abigayel Vosloo vs Leilany Ipunesso Jun 06 $796 +$6 +1%
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 06 $289 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $141 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 2? Jun 06 $270 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $136 $0 +0%
ITF Gaborone: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colalancia Jun 06 $145 $0 +0%
ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Jun 06 $133 $0 +0%
Blinkova vs. Jovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $1,692 +$5 +0%
Series: Anyone's Legend Kill Handicap (-10.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+10.5) Jun 06 $1,429 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: Evo Novo vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Evo Novo vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 05 $246 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 2m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 3m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 3m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 4m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 5m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 5m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 6m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 7m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 7m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 8m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 9m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 9m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 10m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 11m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 11m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 12m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 13m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 13m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 14m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 15m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 15m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 16m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 16m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 17m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 18m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 18m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 19m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 20m
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 20m
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 100¢ $48 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records