Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0240…78f2 other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$867 (-3%) realized −$864 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$675per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days−$941
14 days−$960
30 days−$960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$44
other 30% −$763
sports 3% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 31% -16.6%
≤30d 42 -1.9% -11.2% 36% 31% -16.7%
≤90d 42 -1.9% -11.2% 36% 31% -16.7%
all 42 -1.9% -11.2% 36% 31% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 31% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 21% -24.7%
15% -27.5% 19% -32.0%
20% -34.6% 17% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$48 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$864
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage9d
Avg bet$675
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $231 $230 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $112 $111 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $233 +$84 +36%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $191 +$96 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 −$4 -52%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $60 −$59 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $43 −$1 -1%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $182 +$3 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,344 −$279 -21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$12 +197%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$31 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$34 -67%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $122 −$49 -40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$29 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$15 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$10 -28%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 −$12 -48%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $381 −$123 -32%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $586 −$3 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,370 −$41 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 +$52 +280%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $148 −$33 -22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,627 −$448 -28%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4,288 −$22 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $337 −$8 -2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $45 +$54 +120%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 −$27 -56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $63 −$46 -73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 −$11 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $97 +$19 +19%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $31 +$4 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +81%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $31 −$16 -52%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $6 +$2 +27%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $12 −$5 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $132 23m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $146 23m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $132 23m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $146 25m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $309 33m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $310 34m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 57m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $838 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $841 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $983 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $986 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $858 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $861 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $991 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $994 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $115 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $227 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $6 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $317 9h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $21 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 94¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $22 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.30 · official $367.16 (match) · 264 history records