Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x023d…3431 other 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$602 (-10%) realized −$451 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate27%38W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day92.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$377
14 days−$433
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$237
world 34% −$126
tech 11% −$54
politics 10% −$43
finance 4% −$15
culture 3% −$14
sports 3% −$38
economics 2% −$27
weather 1% −$28
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +3.9% -6.0% 25% 7% -19.8%
≤30d 140 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 8% -20.1%
≤90d 140 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 8% -20.1%
all 140 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 8% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 8% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 5% -27.8%
15% -26.3% 1% -34.7%
20% -33.6% 1% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$451
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses38 / 102
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions54
Markets (closed)140 / 194
History coverage11d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day92.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 76¢ 74¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 56¢ 57¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m? No 63¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 16¢ 18¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? No 45¢ 34¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 54¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 70¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? No 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 22¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 37¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+16%)
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 38¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 39¢ 5¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-87%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 69¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 14¢ 13¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season? Yes 35¢ 27¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 78¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision? Yes 28¢ 2¢ $22 $2 −$21 (-92%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 40¢ 57¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+43%)
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? No 13¢ 3¢ $6 $2 −$5 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 21 $21 −$1 -4%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $11 −$5 -47%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 21 $42 −$3 -7%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 21 $35 −$14 -39%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $245 +$24 +10%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 21 $19 −$2 -10%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $49 −$9 -18%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $86 −$8 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 20 $34 −$2 -7%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will Dylan Wu make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $19 −$14 -72%
Will Chris Gotterup make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $29 −$7 -25%
Will Ben James make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kurt Kitayama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Cameron Smith make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 19 $27 −$14 -52%
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June? Jun 19 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 Jun 19 $14 −$5 -39%
Will Iran finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 19 $19 −$7 -38%
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? Jun 19 $12 +$1 +5%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 19 $3 $0 +12%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round? Jun 18 $19 −$2 -9%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 18 $14 −$10 -74%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 18 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 18 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Netherlands vs Sweden Jun 18 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIF Jun 18 $6 −$2 -27%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 18 $30 −$20 -67%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $87 −$6 -7%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Jun 18 $71 −$16 -22%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $37 −$17 -45%
Will there be a playoff at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $6 −$3 -41%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 18 $109 −$11 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June SELL Yes 22¢ $4 29m
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch SELL No 47¢ $3 42m
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 1h
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch SELL No 55¢ $7 1h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $5 1h
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL No 78¢ $39 1h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? SELL No 20¢ $10 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 3h
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular sea SELL Yes 28¢ $3 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular sea BUY Yes 35¢ $7 3h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 3h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 3h
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch BUY No 57¢ $11 4h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 83¢ $27 5h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 83¢ $14 5h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $12 6h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $24 6h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 6h
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 6h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 42¢ $21 6h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $9 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 11h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 12h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this SELL No 38¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.71 · official $188.60 · 1109 history records