Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
02 0x023b…f27f other 28 markets active 14h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+21%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$12
finance 25% +$14
sports 8% +$12
tech 8% +$2
crypto 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+53.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +65.4% +49.6% 53% 53% -17.7%
≤30d 15 +65.4% +49.6% 53% 53% -17.7%
≤90d 19 +69.1% +53.0% 58% 58% +14.7%
all 19 +69.1% +53.0% 58% 58% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.0% 58% +14.7%
10% +38.4% 58% +3.7%
15% +25.0% 58% -6.3%
20% +12.8% 47% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +103% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage85d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $5 +$5 +100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $5 +$14 +288%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March? Apr 01 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 13h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 18h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 61¢ $5 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 49¢ $5 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.57 · official $8.57 (match) · 48 history records