Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0239…6e89 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,955 (-14%) realized −$4,594 · open −$361
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%27W / 67L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$601est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$206
14 days+$206
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,811
other 2% −$463
crypto 1% −$378
world 0% −$90
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 33% -6.1%
≤30d 21 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 33% -6.1%
≤90d 94 -31.6% -38.1% 29% 24% -23.7%
all 94 -31.6% -38.1% 29% 24% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 24% -23.7%
10% -44.0% 23% -31.0%
15% -49.5% 23% -37.6%
20% -54.4% 21% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$546 vs −$300 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$953
Realized−$4,594
Unrealized−$361
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses27 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$601
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 98
History coverage55d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ 60¢ $610 $619 +$9 (+1%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Oriol Roca Batalla 43¢ 18¢ $634 $274 −$360 (-57%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 5¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $225 +$13 +6%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $204 +$309 +152%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $296 +$714 +241%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $146 −$143 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $147 −$145 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 +$384 +188%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $612 −$603 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $197 −$192 -97%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $918 +$889 +97%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $362 +$148 +41%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $203 +$222 +109%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $358 −$350 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Cilic Jun 16 $160 −$158 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $225 +$175 +78%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $157 −$154 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $123 −$121 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $272 −$148 -54%
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Apr 27 $272 −$266 -98%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Apr 27 $207 −$139 -67%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina Apr 27 $975 −$975 -100%
Madrid Open: Learner Tien vs Adolfo Vallejo Apr 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Jasmine Paolini Apr 26 $423 −$423 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Corentin Moutet Apr 26 $1,310 −$1,310 -100%
Madrid Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Naomi Osaka Apr 26 $1,123 −$1,123 -100%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 26 $9 −$9 -96%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Apr 26 $987 −$965 -98%
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 26 $369 −$78 -21%
Madrid Open: Ugo Humbert vs Terence Atmane Apr 25 $141 −$141 -100%
Madrid Open: Mariano Navone vs Alexander Zverev Apr 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Madrid Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Blockx Apr 25 $800 −$800 -100%
Oeiras 4: Fiona Ferro vs Linda Klimovicova Apr 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Madrid Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Apr 25 $1,332 −$1,332 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Calvin Hemery Apr 25 $1,066 +$63 +6%
Madrid Open: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Denis Shapovalov Apr 25 $999 +$567 +57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $257 +$153 +59%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 25 $1,166 +$992 +85%
Set 1 Winner: Carabelli vs Cobolli Apr 25 $200 +$215 +108%
Madrid Open: Iga Swiatek vs Ann Li Apr 25 $348 +$1,525 +438%
Abidjan: Florent Bax vs Calvin Hemery Apr 25 $1 $0 -0%
Savannah: Nick Hardt vs Jack Kennedy Apr 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Gifu win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Júbilo Iwata vs. FC Gifu: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 25¢ $4 30m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 30¢ $235 31m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 73¢ $239 32m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 71¢ $23 40m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ $202 41m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 57¢ $405 42m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $36 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $36 46m
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ $617 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 39¢ $204 8h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $1,010 8h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernando Escurra 21¢ $146 10h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 59¢ $101 10h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 51¢ $46 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 39¢ $102 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 26¢ $92 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 25¢ $102 11h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $588 11h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 53¢ $172 13h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 50¢ $439 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $44 14h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 42¢ $305 14h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 18¢ $102 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $50 14h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $204 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $103 14h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $1,807 14h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 50¢ $918 15h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 86¢ $510 15h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $425 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $953.31 · official $953.31 (match) · 242 history records