Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0239…4fa3 crypto 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%386W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$1
14 days−$24
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$19
other 1% +$2
finance 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.5%
≤30d 399 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 399 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.8%
all 399 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses386 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)399 / 401
History coverage20d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 38m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.87 · official $27.97 (match) · 803 history records