Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x0238…eb0b
world · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$23,729 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16,816 · open +$673
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44,827
Realized+$16,816
Unrealized+$673
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses48 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)63 / 75
History coverage93d
Avg bet$6,034
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 17 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$610
7 days+$2,298
14 days+$7,098
30 days+$8,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 79¢ 81¢ $13,622 $13,956 +$334 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $10,334 $9,392 −$942 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $8,855 $8,933 +$78 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 36¢ 42¢ $5,475 $6,225 +$750 (+14%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $2,901 $3,177 +$276 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 78¢ 94¢ $2,329 $2,829 +$500 (+21%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 46¢ 23¢ $326 $161 −$164 (-50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 46¢ 10¢ $138 $28 −$109 (-79%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? Yes 53¢ 20¢ $26 $10 −$17 (-63%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $14 $8 −$7 (-48%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 10¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? No 84¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No 65¢ 0¢ $650 $0 −$650 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? Up 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $644 $0 −$644 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by May 15? No 8¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $8,971 +$771 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $4,502 −$1,204 -27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $3,222 +$1,043 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $8,187 +$245 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $10,373 −$68 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $18,442 +$363 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $7,515 +$1,148 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $87,662 +$1,993 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $47,806 +$1,133 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $880 +$120 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $16,296 +$1,555 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $34,702 +$2,355 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $1,825 −$416 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $2,301 +$130 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $872 −$566 -65%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $165 −$2 -1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $416 +$55 +13%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $703 +$18 +3%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $47 −$45 -97%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $471 +$120 +26%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $88 +$4 +4%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 12 $102 +$36 +35%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $1,006 −$16 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $27,241 +$288 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $592 +$1 +0%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? May 08 $560 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 06 $660 −$60 -9%
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? May 06 $1,439 +$42 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $1,792 +$428 +24%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? May 01 $771 +$4 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $4,905 +$171 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $2,194 +$86 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 28 $4,046 −$904 -22%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 28 $300 −$300 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 28 $1,812 −$170 -9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 28 $3,956 +$607 +15%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 26 $650 −$650 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 26 $9,057 +$243 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $858 +$25 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $376 +$23 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,037 +$100 +10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $3,279 +$312 +10%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Apr 16 $514 +$546 +106%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $3,498 +$172 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $863 +$36 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $843 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 98% +$15,778
other 2% +$1,758
politics 0% −$65
crypto 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $270 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 2m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $444 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $100 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $568 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $820 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $440 6m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $617 6m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $370 8m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $42 11m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $211 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $57 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $88 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $769 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.8% -5.2% 71% 29% -6.1%
≤30d 25 -15.1% -23.2% 64% 24% -6.5%
≤90d 61 +14.4% +3.5% 75% 28% -5.4%
all 63 +15.7% +4.7% 76% 30% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.7% 30% -5.1%
10% -5.4% 19% -14.2%
15% ← realistic here -14.5% 11% -22.5%
20% -22.9% 6% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,827.41 · official $44,827.36 (match) · 3500 history records