Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0237…9933 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$38
crypto 27% −$15
other 16% +$22
world 11% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.4% -4.6% 38% 38% -3.0%
≤30d 13 +5.4% -4.6% 38% 38% -3.0%
≤90d 13 +5.4% -4.6% 38% 38% -3.0%
all 13 +5.4% -4.6% 38% 38% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 38% -3.0%
10% -13.8% 38% -12.3%
15% -22.1% 38% -20.8%
20% -29.7% 31% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 49¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $9 +$41 +454%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $11 +$6 +59%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$9 -90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 11h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-06-1 BUY 20¢ $5 11h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will England win on 20 BUY 13¢ $9 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $10 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $7 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 20¢ $17 17h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colom BUY $5 25h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY $10 46h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 14¢ $9 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 36¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 11¢ $11 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $12 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.76 · official $19.76 (match) · 31 history records