Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0237…2a04 sports 226 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$137 (-7%) realized −$169 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%94W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$109
14 days+$109
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$358
other 22% +$104
world 3% −$12
politics 3% −$3
crypto 0% +$3
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +52.7% +38.2% 81% 75% +40.2%
≤30d 31 -0.9% -10.4% 55% 52% +10.1%
≤90d 223 -16.3% -24.2% 42% 37% -20.3%
all 223 -16.3% -24.2% 42% 37% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 37% -20.3%
10% -31.5% 34% -28.0%
15% -38.1% 25% -34.9%
20% -44.2% 20% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses94 / 129
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)223 / 226
History coverage41d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 99¢ $180 $199 +$19 (+10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $133 +$84 +63%
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Ser Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +29%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +103%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 19 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$8 +149%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Jun 19 $15 −$20 -130%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 19 $5 +$10 +203%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $5 +$2 +47%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 21 $5 +$3 +63%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $5 +$5 +91%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 20 $7 $0 -3%
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? May 20 $14 −$1 -4%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 20 $5 −$5 -89%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $7 $0 +4%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $7 $0 +7%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $7 +$1 +9%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) May 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 May 19 $5 +$4 +84%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 19 $5 +$5 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $182 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $133 5h
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Ser SELL No 59¢ $5 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $5 5h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $7 5h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $7 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 24d
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 27d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 36¢ $5 27d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 39¢ $5 27d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 79¢ $5 27d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 64¢ $5 27d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Team WE 50¢ $5 27d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 59¢ $5 27d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 62¢ $5 28d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 62¢ $5 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $5 28d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? BUY No 48¢ $5 28d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 28d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 38¢ $5 28d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 28d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY No 59¢ $5 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 28d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 26¢ $5 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 35¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.05 · official $247.05 (match) · 504 history records