Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:40:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0237…5950 other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$14
politics 35% −$8
sports 15% −$13
economics 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 111 +0.9% -8.7% 6% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.7%
10% -17.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 104
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage127d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $155 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $157 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $120 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $345 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $120 −$5 -4%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $463 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $311 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $276 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $166 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $456 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $312 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $299 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $328 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $165 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $295 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $468 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 18d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 19d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 19d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $155 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 23d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $131 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $131 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $142 25d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $142 25d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 25d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 25d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $153 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $153 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $152 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $152 27d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $146 28d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $146 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $120 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 29d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $133 29d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $133 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 30d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $158 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 310 history records