Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0236…fe9f other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-5%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate69%35W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$11
crypto 15% −$32
politics 6% −$60
world 4% +$1
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.8% -18.4% 69% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 13 -9.8% -18.4% 69% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 13 -9.8% -18.4% 69% 0% -11.3%
all 51 -5.7% -14.7% 69% 14% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 14% -14.4%
10% -22.8% 10% -22.5%
15% -30.3% 6% -30.0%
20% -37.1% 4% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses35 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage603d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $247 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Iraq? Jun 22 $91 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $156 $0 +0%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $89 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $65 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $65 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $65 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 10 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 10 $28 −$12 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 10 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 10 $23 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 10 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 10 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 10 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 09 $13 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 09 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 07 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $65 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jan 20 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jan 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026 Jan 20 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 12 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 12 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jan 11 $0 $0 +50%
Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday? Jan 11 $8 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 11 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 11 $3 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 11 $3 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $1 $0 +4%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $2 $0 -6%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 11 $1 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 99¢ $251 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $91 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Iraq? SELL No 100¢ $91 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $44 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $46 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $66 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Iraq? BUY No 100¢ $91 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 6h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? SELL No 97¢ $66 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? SELL No 98¢ $23 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 98¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 98¢ $48 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 98¢ $41 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? BUY No 100¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? BUY No 100¢ $136 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 98¢ $65 24h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? SELL No 100¢ $65 24h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $65 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 IR Iran? BUY No 99¢ $65 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $59 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records