Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x022e…9685 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-24%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -27.1% -34.0% 55% 18% -32.1%
≤30d 11 -27.1% -34.0% 55% 18% -32.1%
≤90d 11 -27.1% -34.0% 55% 18% -32.1%
all 11 -27.1% -34.0% 55% 18% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 18% -32.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 0% -38.6%
15% -46.1% 0% -44.5%
20% -51.4% 0% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $50 −$49 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $42 +$9 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $38 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $60 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -50%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $22 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $45 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 4h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 7h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 7h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 7h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 90¢ $30 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records