Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
02 0x022c…4873 world 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$151 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate58%46W / 33L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$382
7 days+$363
14 days+$456
30 days+$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$192
other 31% −$50
tech 12% +$41
sports 6% −$63
politics 5% +$76
economics 4% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.7% +1.9% 78% 44% -3.7%
≤30d 25 +5.8% -4.3% 64% 24% -5.5%
≤90d 66 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 26% -8.0%
all 79 -4.4% -13.5% 58% 27% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 27% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 10% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$40 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$2,384
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses46 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)79 / 85
History coverage177d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $1,364 $1,423 +$60 (+4%)
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 84¢ 88¢ $400 $421 +$21 (+5%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Yes 61¢ 74¢ $200 $242 +$42 (+21%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 84¢ 89¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? No 14¢ 14¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $102 +$72 +71%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $200 +$11 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,666 +$196 +12%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $404 +$103 +26%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $1,002 +$25 +2%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 20 $201 −$12 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 19 $332 +$45 +13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $815 −$85 -10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $939 +$9 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $380 +$68 +18%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1,036 +$25 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $300 −$4 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 07 $170 −$7 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 04 $131 +$12 +9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 04 $153 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $140 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $431 +$43 +10%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 31 $548 −$58 -11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 31 $297 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 29 $75 +$3 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 29 $322 +$10 +3%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 29 $163 +$55 +34%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? May 29 $158 −$52 -33%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 26 $238 −$4 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $628 +$56 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $458 −$26 -6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 23 $150 −$38 -25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $604 +$39 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $164 +$18 +11%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 22 $154 −$19 -12%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $155 −$143 -92%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 13 $17 +$22 +135%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $254 +$78 +31%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $328 −$54 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 10 $609 +$10 +2%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $165 −$164 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $562 −$39 -7%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 07 $150 −$8 -5%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 07 $154 +$14 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $147 +$19 +13%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 03 $149 +$19 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 02 $251 +$53 +21%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $300 +$27 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 28 $304 −$25 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 27 $151 −$57 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $163 −$69 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY No 14¢ $36 1h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $203 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 12h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $400 23h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 99¢ $174 34h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 57¢ $102 36h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 79¢ $211 37h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 75¢ $200 42h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,719 45h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $507 45h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,508 3d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,027 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 81¢ $189 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 85¢ $201 3d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $404 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $377 4d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,002 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,002 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 74¢ $730 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $613 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $202 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 89¢ $948 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 89¢ $354 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 89¢ $78 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 89¢ $35 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 89¢ $471 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $181 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $143 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 11d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $893 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,383.95 · official $2,385.58 (match) · 330 history records