Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x022b…35ae crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$112 (-1%) realized −$117 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate79%180W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$50
14 days+$71
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$69
other 22% +$12
world 17% −$53
politics 7% +$5
weather 5% −$183
sports 3% −$27
tech 3% −$2
finance 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -3.0% -12.2% 76% 6% -8.9%
≤30d 202 -5.1% -14.2% 79% 6% -11.3%
≤90d 229 -3.0% -12.3% 79% 10% -10.6%
all 229 -3.0% -12.3% 79% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 10% -10.6%
10% -20.6% 4% -19.1%
15% -28.3% 3% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$930
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses180 / 49
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)229 / 239
History coverage54d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 95¢ 94¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? No 94¢ 94¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 90¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? No 97¢ 96¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $299 +$25 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $77 −$75 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 22 $403 +$30 +7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $25 −$3 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $25 −$1 -4%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $201 −$4 -2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $75 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $201 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $202 +$14 +7%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $25 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $101 +$6 +6%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 19 $200 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $126 +$9 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $125 +$9 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $142 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $201 −$16 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 18 $95 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 −$187 -94%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $201 +$6 +3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $198 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $201 +$11 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $501 +$22 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $943 +$110 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $261 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $201 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $324 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno BUY Gonzalo Bueno 7¢ $77 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 97¢ $15 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $216 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $217 3h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $23 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Gabriel Diallo 50¢ $22 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 93¢ $100 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Gabriel Diallo 56¢ $25 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $299 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $19 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 41¢ $25 12h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $199 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 41¢ $25 13h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York SELL Mi New York 98¢ $20 13h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 96¢ $20 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 93¢ $101 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $100 16h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $201 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $25 21h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $19 24h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL No 85¢ $197 26h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 99¢ $83 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $202 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $929.69 · official $929.69 (match) · 613 history records