Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x022a…2857 sports 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 650d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%30W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$26
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$13
politics 26% −$18
other 23% −$18
economics 5% −$3
crypto 3% −$5
world 3% −$4
tech 2% −$6
culture 2% −$5
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 81 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 84 -0.8% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.2%
all 354 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

650d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses30 / 324
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)354 / 355
History coverage650d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $95 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $46 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $93 −$1 -2%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $52 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 08 $56 −$3 -5%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $123 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $63 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $106 −$2 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $41 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $94 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $124 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 44m
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 9h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $44 9h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $44 17h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $44 18h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $44 23h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $5 23h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $5 27h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $37 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $55 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 36h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $38 36h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 36h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 43h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 44h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $65 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $66 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $55 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $55 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $18 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.49 · official $54.49 (match) · 1354 history records