Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x0225…d78e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$8 (-17%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$51
sports 33% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +26.1% +14.1% 29% 29% +61.0%
≤30d 7 +26.1% +14.1% 29% 29% +61.0%
≤90d 7 +26.1% +14.1% 29% 29% +61.0%
all 7 +26.1% +14.1% 29% 29% +61.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 29% +61.0%
10% +3.2% 29% +45.6%
15% -6.8% 29% +31.5%
20% -15.9% 29% +18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$6 · ×5.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 +$57 +506%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$9 +177%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 56¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 77¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records