Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x021c…232f sports 467 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38,828 (+3%) realized +$39,082 · open −$254
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%241W / 222L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,891per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$14,940est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,536
7 days−$3,037
14 days+$8,374
30 days−$18,693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$30,193
other 0% +$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.2% -26.9% 38% 38% -22.6%
≤30d 104 -8.4% -17.2% 48% 47% -13.6%
≤90d 314 +3.5% -6.3% 54% 54% -4.0%
all 463 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 52% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 52% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 52% -16.3%
15% -26.4% 52% -24.4%
20% -33.6% 51% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$4,264) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,642 vs −$2,729 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1,240
Realized+$39,082
Unrealized−$254
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses241 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$14,940
Open positions4
Markets (closed)463 / 467
History coverage162d
Avg bet$2,891
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $632 $642 +$10 (+2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 48¢ $402 $398 −$4 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 48¢ 46¢ $206 $200 −$6 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ $254 $0 −$254 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 212 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $616 −$33 -5%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Jun 18 $3,882 +$3,221 +83%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,179 −$3,134 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 16 $1,612 −$1,590 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 16 $3,175 +$2,625 +83%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,418 +$2,082 +86%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 12 $3,249 −$3,099 -95%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 11 $3,154 −$3,109 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $4,399 +$4,101 +93%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 10 $3,146 −$3,100 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 09 $597 −$588 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 09 $2,526 −$2,491 -99%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 09 $1,441 +$1,191 +83%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 09 $3,120 +$2,580 +83%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 09 $3,112 +$2,788 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $2,371 +$2,929 +124%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $3,045 +$2,955 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $3,105 +$3,265 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $3,104 +$3,396 +109%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $4,360 +$2,940 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $2,374 −$2,340 -99%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-2.5) Jun 05 $3,096 −$3,053 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 04 $2,587 −$146 -6%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 04 $3,059 −$3,016 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $3,171 −$3,127 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $6,152 +$4,148 +67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $6,108 +$4,292 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $6,169 +$6,231 +101%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5) Jun 04 $2,375 −$2,337 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $2,268 −$2,236 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) Jun 03 $2,380 −$2,346 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $4,372 −$4,320 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 02 $6,128 −$6,048 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $3,099 +$2,561 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $3,105 +$3,995 +129%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-12.5) Jun 01 $2,329 −$2,295 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 01 $3,094 −$3,046 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $6,132 +$4,868 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $6,138 +$5,282 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $6,141 +$5,959 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $6,142 +$6,458 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $6,159 +$6,741 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $6,144 +$6,206 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $6,156 +$7,014 +114%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 30 $2,365 −$2,332 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $6,209 −$6,113 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $6,140 +$5,500 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $6,132 −$6,050 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 29 $6,140 −$6,053 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $6,387 −$6,306 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $430 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 43¢ $583 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $408 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $582 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $35 6h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $211 6h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $210 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $257 6h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $44 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $44 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $44 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $5 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $1 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $44 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $493 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $55 22h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $219 22h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $2,573 22h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 53¢ $54 22h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 53¢ $107 22h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 53¢ $752 22h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 53¢ $1,075 22h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 53¢ $39 22h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 52¢ $30 22h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 53¢ $322 22h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 52¢ $369 22h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 52¢ $791 22h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,612 45h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 54¢ $3,175 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 53¢ $2,418 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,239.65 · official $1,239.88 (match) · 1928 history records