trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Spread: Colombia (-2.5) | Colombia | 40¢ | 0¢ | $107 | $0 | −$107 (-100%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $46 | $0 | −$46 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 | Jun 12 | $282 | +$62 | +22% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $149 | +$34 | +23% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-08? | Jun 08 | $231 | +$17 | +7% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 07 | $217 | +$14 | +6% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 06 | $100 | +$17 | +18% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 06 | $1,166 | −$189 | -16% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 06 | $1,007 | +$106 | +10% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-04? | Jun 04 | $999 | +$63 | +6% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? | Jun 03 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? | Jun 02 | $47 | −$46 | -99% |
| Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? | Jun 02 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? | Jun 02 | $5 | −$3 | -65% |
| Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? | Jun 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? | Jun 02 | $1,066 | −$167 | -16% |
| Spread: Colombia (-2.5) | Jun 02 | $318 | −$236 | -74% |
| Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? | Jun 01 | $99 | −$65 | -66% |
| Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$23 | +226% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? | May 31 | $1,021 | +$105 | +10% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? | May 31 | $1,122 | +$125 | +11% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $1,060 | +$63 | +6% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $56 | +$48 | +86% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $752 | +$103 | +14% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? | May 29 | $548 | +$202 | +37% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? | May 29 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $1,296 | −$89 | -7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | Jun 28 | $5 | +$2 | +40% |
| Trump wins every swing state? | Nov 08 | $2 | +$1 | +50% |
| Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | Oct 18 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 17 | $0 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran military response by Monday? | Aug 17 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Iran military response by Sunday? | Aug 04 | $77 | −$34 | -44% |
| Iran military response by Friday? | Aug 03 | $100 | +$53 | +53% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 86% | 43% | -7.8% |
| ≤30d | 25 | -11.4% | -19.9% | 56% | 32% | -8.3% |
| ≤90d | 25 | -11.4% | -19.9% | 56% | 32% | -8.3% |
| all | 32 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 56% | 34% | -8.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.4% | 34% | -8.3% |
| 10% | -28.0% | 22% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -35.0% | 19% | -25.1% |
| 20% | -41.3% | 9% | -32.4% |