Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x0212…cc19 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$80 (+7%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate100%24W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 12% -3.2%
≤30d 24 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 12% -3.2%
≤90d 24 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 12% -3.2%
all 24 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 12% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 12% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -12.5%
15% -21.1% 0% -20.9%
20% -28.9% 0% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses24 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $84 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $111 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $68 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $64 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $84 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $111 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $64 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $71 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $78 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $53 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $67 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $82 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records