Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
02 0x020d…37c3 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$540 (+33%) realized +$540 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$266
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$534
tech 3% $0
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +95.1% +76.5% 100% 100% +75.8%
≤90d 6 +36.7% +23.7% 83% 83% +21.5%
all 6 +36.7% +23.7% 83% 83% +21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.7% 83% +21.5%
10% +11.8% 67% +9.8%
15% +1.0% 67% -0.8%
20% -8.9% 67% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$272 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$540
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage64d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $234 +$266 +114%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $255 +$195 +76%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 10 $336 +$184 +55%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $206 +$134 +65%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 28 $279 −$272 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $255 +$27 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $45 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 5d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $17 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $234 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $255 29d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Hurricanes 64¢ $336 43d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 60¢ $206 45d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 17¢ $279 55d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 90¢ $255 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.88 · official $84.88 (match) · 14 history records