Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x020a…027c other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%5W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$20
politics 34% −$17
sports 11% +$25
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 125 +1.3% -8.4% 4% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×16.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses5 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage133d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $222 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $230 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $418 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $263 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $519 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 05 $225 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $268 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $266 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $267 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $268 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $253 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $202 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $246 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $238 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $273 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $666 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 20 $275 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $390 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $641 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 2h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 15h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 47h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $44 17d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $246 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $246 22d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $266 26d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $266 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $222 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $222 28d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $247 28d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $247 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 29d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 29d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $267 30d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $267 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $255 31d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $255 31d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $230 31d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 32d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 33d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 34d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 34d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 35d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 35d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records