Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x020a…73af
other · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage468d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $47 $46 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $39 −$2 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $9 −$1 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 10 $2 $0 -10%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $4 −$2 -56%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 24 $9 −$3 -32%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101K and $102K on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 20 $14 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$3
other 37% $0
politics 16% +$2
culture 3% −$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $47 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $5 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $24 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $30 2d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $48 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $23 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $48 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $48 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 29% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 22% 11% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 22% 11% -10.0%
all 45 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 9% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -10.2%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.90 · official $45.90 (match) · 146 history records