trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 33% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 45% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 45% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 27 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 44% | 0% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 0% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $36 | $35 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $25 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 02 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 31 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 28 | $72 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 28 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 28 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi | Jun 27 | $24 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? | Apr 11 | $0 | $0 | -0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Apr 11 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 10 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Apr 10 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Apr 04 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? | Apr 03 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Apr 03 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? | Apr 01 | $8 | −$1 | -16% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? | Apr 01 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? | Mar 31 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| 500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? | Mar 30 | $28 | $0 | +1% |