Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
02 0x0203…270d sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,148 (+20%) realized +$3,210 · open −$62
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 192d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$2,634
other 36% +$2,191
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +180.0% +153.3% 100% 100% +153.3%
≤30d 3 +72.8% +56.3% 67% 67% +102.5%
≤90d 6 +104.2% +84.8% 67% 67% +110.6%
all 55 -12.7% -21.0% 35% 35% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 35% -8.7%
10% -28.5% 35% -17.4%
15% -35.5% 35% -25.4%
20% -41.8% 31% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +133% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$167 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,210
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 36
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage192d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 20¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $102 +$183 +180%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 −$28 -90%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $189 +$242 +128%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $70 +$252 +362%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $71 +$104 +145%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 19 $200 +$232 +116%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Feb 18 $220 +$81 +37%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $160 +$340 +212%
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $4,024 +$1,727 +43%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: First Touchdown Feb 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Stefon Diggs: First Touchdown Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Stefon Diggs: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Cooper Kupp: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline Feb 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $616 −$537 -87%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 19 $448 −$448 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $280 −$280 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $480 −$180 -37%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $404 −$402 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $265 +$176 +66%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $585 −$300 -51%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $600 −$200 -33%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $540 −$120 -22%
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $895 −$490 -55%
Spread: Rams (-14.5) Jan 11 $100 +$105 +105%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $120 −$20 -17%
Spread: Rams (-10.5) Jan 11 $110 +$175 +159%
Spread: Bears (-4.5) Jan 11 $125 −$125 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5 Jan 11 $100 +$164 +164%
Spread: Rams (-6.5) Jan 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-4.5) Jan 10 $298 +$395 +133%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $530 −$530 -100%
Lions vs. Vikings Dec 26 $100 −$100 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 23 $126 −$126 -100%
49ers vs. Colts: O/U 46.5 Dec 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 22 $221 +$435 +197%
Steelers vs. Lions Dec 22 $115 −$15 -13%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 22 $100 +$168 +168%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 21 $100 +$115 +115%
Raiders vs. Texans Dec 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5 Dec 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 39.5 Dec 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 21 $325 −$325 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 21 $370 −$350 -95%
Wizards vs. Grizzlies Dec 21 $40 +$103 +257%
Will Jake Paul walk out to Real American by Rick Derringer? Dec 20 $822 +$538 +66%
Will Jake Paul walk out to Till I Die by Machine Gun Kelly? Dec 20 $100 +$98 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France $3 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 73¢ $207 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $35 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $63 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $74 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 33¢ $52 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 19¢ $67 13d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $31 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $122 13d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 99¢ $321 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $70 50d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Joshua Van 100¢ $175 50d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 40¢ $71 50d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 39¢ $61 50d
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada SELL USA 100¢ $432 130d
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada BUY USA 46¢ $200 130d
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden SELL USA 100¢ $301 131d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $500 131d
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 131d
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden BUY USA 73¢ $220 131d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 32¢ $160 131d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: First Touchdown BUY Jaxon Smith-Njigba 44¢ $53 141d
Stefon Diggs: First Touchdown BUY Stefon Diggs $20 141d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 75¢ $1,000 141d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 71¢ $1,000 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 162 history records