Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0203…ecd4 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$4
politics 22% −$3
other 19% −$5
sports 8% +$1
crypto 7% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 7 -2.2% -11.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 15% 8% -10.0%
all 60 -4.6% -13.7% 23% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 3% -10.2%
10% -21.9% 2% -18.8%
15% -29.5% 2% -26.7%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage307d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $18 −$1 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $71 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $31 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1 $0 +16%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $1 $0 -21%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldo Sep 28 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 28 $19 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $2 $0 +3%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $12 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $5 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $18 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $13 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $25 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $8 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $33 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $33 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $38 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $38 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $6 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $32 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $37 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $38 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $38 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.32 · official $32.33 (match) · 210 history records