Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
02 0x0202…c15d crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$977 (-4%) realized −$978 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%45W / 1L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$15
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$28
politics 26% −$1,005
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 46 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -14.1%
10% -18.3% 0% -22.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -29.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1,007 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$2,535
Realized−$978
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses45 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage612d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,534 $2,535 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,530 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $601 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,925 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,025 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $340 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $462 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,717 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $350 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2,160 +$6 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Green Party win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 30 $33 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 30 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 30 $212 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $564 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5,010 −$1,007 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,534 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,530 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $601 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,925 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,025 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,717 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $340 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $462 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,160 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $350 8d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 116d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 116d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $15 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 270d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 270d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $4 270d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 270d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 270d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 270d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $4 270d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 270d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 270d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 270d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 270d
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 270d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se BUY No 100¢ $4 270d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,535.27 · official $2,535.27 (match) · 104 history records