Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0201…e05b sports 47 markets active 1d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-4%) realized +$1 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%24W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1
other 14% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.5% +2.7% 71% 71% -4.6%
≤30d 45 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 53% -9.6%
≤90d 45 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 53% -9.6%
all 45 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 53% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 53% -9.6%
10% -22.6% 51% -18.2%
15% -30.1% 47% -26.1%
20% -36.9% 42% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses24 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 72¢ 38¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-47%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +78%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +95%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +91%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +112%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +88%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 May 30 $1 +$1 +74%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1 +$1 +63%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 28 $1 +$1 +81%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $1 +$1 +74%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 May 27 $4 +$3 +66%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byr May 25 $1 $0 +23%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byro May 25 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 25 $1 +$1 +66%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 24 $1 +$1 +99%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 May 24 $1 +$1 +84%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 May 23 $1 +$1 +88%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 23 $1 +$1 +99%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $1 +$2 +178%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 47¢ $0 28h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 48¢ $0 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 48¢ $0 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 50¢ $0 5d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 5d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 5d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 6d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 6d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 6d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 6d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $1 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $1 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.50 (match) · 113 history records