Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ff…d976 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (282 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-2%) realized −$11 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day282.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$175
other 2% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (282 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +14.5% +3.6% 35% 25% -16.5%
≤30d 71 +14.5% +3.6% 35% 25% -16.5%
≤90d 71 +14.5% +3.6% 35% 25% -16.5%
all 71 +14.5% +3.6% 35% 25% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover282.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.6% 25% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.4% 18% -24.5%
15% -15.4% 10% -31.8%
20% -23.7% 6% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 46
Open positions9
Markets (closed)71 / 80
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day282.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 0¢ 52¢ $0 $28 +$28 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 58¢ 48¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-18%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 37¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 44¢ 4¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-92%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $77 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$2 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$30 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$22 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $57 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $22 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$6 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$19 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $33 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $24 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $34 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $37 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $33 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $18 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $64 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.94 · official $109.50 · 333 history records