Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x01fd…e674 crypto 571 markets active 2h ago coverage 675d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+2%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%317W / 251L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days+$25
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$87
sports 22% +$105
politics 14% −$56
other 14% +$63
world 11% −$7
tech 2% −$15
finance 1% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 0% -35.3%
≤30d 50 +2.2% -7.6% 62% 44% +0.8%
≤90d 362 -7.0% -15.8% 49% 40% -13.9%
all 568 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 36% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 36% -8.0%
10% -21.0% 32% -16.8%
15% -28.6% 25% -24.8%
20% -35.6% 21% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses317 / 251
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)568 / 571
History coverage675d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? No 87¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $101 −$15 -15%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $11 +$21 +188%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $1 +$1 +70%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $5 +$3 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $46 +$32 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $27 +$13 +47%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $16 −$16 -99%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $6 +$3 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $61 +$46 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 30 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 30 $26 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 30 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 27 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 27 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 25 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 24 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 24 $5 +$6 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $6 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $86 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $101 21h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 42h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $10 42h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $10 44h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $5 11d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 34¢ $10 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 34¢ $1 11d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $1 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $30 14d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $10 14d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $5 14d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $6 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 15d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $1 15d
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 88¢ $1 15d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 63¢ $1 15d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 15d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 15d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $1 15d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $4.41 (match) · 1540 history records