Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01fb…55ed other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$264 (-3%) realized −$269 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate65%62W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$26
14 days+$55
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 27% −$48
other 20% +$81
world 19% −$189
sports 17% −$135
finance 7% +$4
politics 6% +$9
tech 2% +$1
culture 2% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -38.2% -44.1% 33% 25% -22.8%
≤30d 95 +13.7% +2.9% 65% 9% -10.8%
≤90d 96 +13.4% +2.6% 65% 9% -12.8%
all 96 +13.4% +2.6% 65% 9% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 9% -12.8%
10% -7.2% 6% -21.1%
15% -16.2% 5% -28.8%
20% -24.4% 4% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses62 / 34
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)96 / 104
History coverage32d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 98¢ 100¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $22 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $26 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 $0 -6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $25 +$4 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$5 +22%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $14 +$5 +36%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 −$18 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$47 +1521%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$47 +1521%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +91%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 $0 -19%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $19 +$18 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -13%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$10 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $16 −$11 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $121 −$7 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $55 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 94¢ $47 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 30¢ $7 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 46h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 17¢ $8 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 18¢ $9 4d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 16¢ $8 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 18¢ $9 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 6d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $19 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $3 7d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $22 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 6¢ $3 8d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $9 8d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.95 · official $198.22 (match) · 210 history records