Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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01 0x01fa…7a59 crypto 1442 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$470 (-1%) realized −$460 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%1367W / 74L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$279
14 days−$278
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$190
world 30% −$177
other 6% −$29
sports 4% −$9
politics 2% −$19
finance 2% −$2
economics 1% −$108
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.9% -19.4% 22% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 42 -3.5% -12.7% 12% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 324 -0.4% -9.9% 84% 1% -11.6%
all 1441 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 1% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -11.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1367 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1441 / 1442
History coverage108d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 89¢ 86¢ $288 $279 −$10 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $1,083 +$17 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 25 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $74 −$25 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $1,163 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 21 $168 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 20 $233 $0 -0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $200 −$108 -54%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,571 −$161 -10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 19 $91 −$2 -2%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $188 −$2 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $284 −$1 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $357 +$8 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $243 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $302 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $163 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $1,001 −$2 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $206 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $55 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $264 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 04 $384 −$1 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 04 $215 −$10 -4%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $189 −$22 -12%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $136 −$2 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 02 $110 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $57 −$6 -11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 02 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $621 −$8 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $283 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 28 $890 −$102 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 26 $117 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $202 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? May 22 $155 $0 -0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 22 $82 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 21 $122 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $323 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $151 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $154 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $289 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $41 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $34 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $4 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $4 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $30 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $3 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $3 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $3 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $15 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $15 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $162 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $165 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $162 12h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 19¢ $7 2d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 19¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.80 · official $278.80 (match) · 3240 history records