Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01f3…7ffe other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$125 (-19%) realized −$138 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$142
sports 15% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 42% -29.1%
≤30d 24 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 42% -29.1%
≤90d 24 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 42% -29.1%
all 24 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 42% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 42% -29.1%
10% -22.5% 38% -35.9%
15% -30.0% 29% -42.1%
20% -36.9% 25% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $36 $49 +$13 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$15 +30%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$7 +107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$21 +34%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +259%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$28 +134%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $63 +$36 +57%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$56 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $36 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $28 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.18 · official $49.18 (match) · 60 history records