Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ef…9888 crypto 341 markets active 2d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate78%265W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$14
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$35
sports 12% +$14
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -26.4% -33.4% 50% 30% -39.1%
≤30d 162 +1.8% -7.9% 81% 22% -10.8%
≤90d 167 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 22% -14.2%
all 340 -0.6% -10.1% 78% 21% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 21% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 10% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 6% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses265 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)340 / 341
History coverage119d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$1 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 68¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 61¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 76¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 21¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 93¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 80¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 96¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 77¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 96¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 60¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.35 · official $1.35 (match) · 916 history records