Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ef…fa7b sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-2%) realized −$100 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%82W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days−$801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$109
other 11% −$250
politics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +36.0% +23.1% 86% 86% +19.3%
≤30d 14 -32.0% -38.5% 43% 43% -74.4%
≤90d 92 -47.7% -52.7% 28% 28% -20.1%
all 163 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 50% -12.0%
10% -20.2% 47% -20.4%
15% -27.9% 40% -28.1%
20% -35.0% 34% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$28 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses82 / 81
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage168d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Elina Svitolina 82¢ 81¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $22 +$5 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $45 +$48 +105%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $56 −$55 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar May 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 23 $404 −$404 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: McCartney Kessler vs Jaqueline Cristian May 18 $89 +$80 +90%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 18 $51 −$12 -24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $437 +$68 +16%
Paris: Katie Volynets vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Anastas May 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Paris: Yulia Putintseva vs Veronika Podrez May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 16 $248 −$248 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $255 +$394 +155%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich May 16 $51 +$58 +114%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $51 +$141 +276%
Paris: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Blinkova May 14 $167 +$83 +50%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina May 13 $51 +$115 +226%
Bengaluru 2: Joshua Charlton vs Ognjen Milic May 13 $19 +$6 +33%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova May 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Hailey Baptiste May 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rebeka Masarova vs Leylah Fernandez May 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 12 $268 +$78 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $126 +$143 +114%
Paris: Veronika Podrez vs Sloane Stephens May 12 $85 +$41 +49%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek May 11 $117 +$25 +21%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova May 11 $80 +$38 +48%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $114 +$22 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 08 $50 +$21 +41%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $51 +$31 +62%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $104 +$41 +40%
Magic vs. Pistons May 05 $78 +$26 +34%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $65 +$13 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 241.5 May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Wizards vs. 76ers: O/U 234.5 May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5 May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 82¢ $121 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 80¢ $22 24h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 68¢ $10 24h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 65¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 24h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 48¢ $45 47h
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 15¢ $56 23d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro BUY Victoria Mboko 40¢ $102 25d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 20¢ $10 30d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: McCartney Kessler vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 52¢ $68 30d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: McCartney Kessler vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 52¢ $20 30d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa SELL Cristina Bucsa 34¢ $38 30d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa BUY Cristina Bucsa 43¢ $51 31d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 64¢ $404 31d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $505 31d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Jannik Sinner 86¢ $437 31d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 15¢ $42 31d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 43¢ $51 31d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 31d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 31d
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar BUY Jaume Munar 19¢ $31 32d
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar BUY Jaume Munar 25¢ $31 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $649 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 28¢ $51 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 42¢ $102 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 43¢ $102 32d
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Anastas BUY Elsa Jacquemot 59¢ $27 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.76 · official $119.78 (match) · 353 history records