Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
01 0x01ee…6ab0 sports 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$730 (-1%) realized −$730 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%174W / 122L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$550est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$648
7 days−$1,603
14 days−$1,186
30 days−$1,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$260
other 10% −$1,021
crypto 1% −$364
world 0% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -10.2% -18.8% 48% 48% -15.9%
≤30d 55 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 53% -14.1%
≤90d 214 -15.4% -23.5% 49% 46% -16.6%
all 296 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 55% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 55% -12.1%
10% -18.4% 48% -20.5%
15% -26.3% 41% -28.2%
20% -33.5% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$151 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses174 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$550
Open positions0
Markets (closed)296 / 296
History coverage117d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 296 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $808 −$532 -66%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $354 +$231 +65%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $279 −$279 -100%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $405 +$241 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $909 +$453 +50%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $303 +$180 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 −$21 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $204 −$31 -15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $203 +$241 +119%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $405 +$296 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $706 +$293 +41%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $203 +$190 +94%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $304 +$273 +90%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $1,504 +$162 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,162 +$401 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,383 −$444 -32%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $243 −$243 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,639 −$1,395 -85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,068 −$486 -46%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 +$214 +105%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $303 +$151 +50%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $500 +$606 +121%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $552 +$377 +68%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,309 −$759 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $402 −$364 -90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $607 +$360 +59%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 14 $272 −$272 -100%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 14 $406 −$276 -68%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $356 −$356 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $406 +$409 +101%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$54 +106%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $409 +$179 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1,011 +$216 +21%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $706 +$293 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $102 +$111 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $303 +$154 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$67 -66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $304 +$188 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $277 24m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $354 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $405 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,362 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $909 18h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 18h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 18h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $101 18h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $26 19h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $483 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Over 33¢ $81 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $173 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $204 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $303 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 22h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $701 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 22h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $405 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $706 22h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 51¢ $203 27h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $304 27h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 90¢ $1,504 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,563 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,162 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 681 history records