Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ec…7e75 sports 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%25W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 23% −$7
politics 22% −$3
economics 10% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
culture 4% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.8%
all 223 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses25 / 198
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage173d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $151 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $168 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 07 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $83 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 06 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Feb 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 95¢ $33 1h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 96¢ $34 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $35 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 7d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 22d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 22d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $31 30d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $32 30d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $30 37d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $30 37d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $29 98d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $15 98d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $14 98d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $32 98d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $32 98d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $38 98d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $30 99d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $10 99d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $40 99d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $40 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 94¢ $39 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $39 99d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $39 100d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $28 100d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $11 100d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $34 100d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $34 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $39 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $39 101d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $42 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 829 history records