Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ec…7abe crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$215 (-22%) realized −$215 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$300
sports 19% −$180
other 16% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 29% -49.9%
≤30d 14 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 29% -49.9%
≤90d 14 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 29% -49.9%
all 14 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 29% -49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 29% -49.9%
10% -43.4% 29% -54.7%
15% -48.8% 29% -59.1%
20% -53.9% 21% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$79 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $105 +$179 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$78 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$40 -81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$100 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $14 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $68 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $97 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $45 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records