Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x01e9…ae8d crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%22W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
crypto 43% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.5%
all 23 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×56.97 per $1 lost it wins $56.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses22 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage99d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $144 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 9? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 1? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 25? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 19? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 10? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $144 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $117 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $117 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $107 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $110 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $14 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $13 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $12 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $11 83d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $13 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $14 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $13 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $12 93d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $11 97d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.28 · official $144.28 (match) · 52 history records