Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x01e9…3b95 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$328 (-15%) realized −$272 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$74
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$62
crypto 5% −$108
culture 4% −$67
economics 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 33% +4.2%
≤90d 9 +9.7% -0.8% 33% 33% -9.3%
all 36 -35.4% -41.6% 22% 22% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 22% -22.1%
10% -47.2% 22% -29.6%
15% -52.3% 22% -36.4%
20% -56.9% 22% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$46 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage406d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $100 $46 −$54 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $100 −$67 -67%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $33 +$68 +205%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $108 −$105 -97%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $100 −$15 -15%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $189 +$296 +156%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 10 $49 +$67 +138%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $85 +$104 +123%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 06 $65 +$106 +164%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? Jul 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix? Jul 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jul 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? Jul 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jul 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix? Jul 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jul 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? Jul 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jul 04 $50 +$129 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 15d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 84¢ $200 20d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 22d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $33 22d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 22d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 33d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 34d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 55d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 8¢ $85 55d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $56 55d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 104d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 114d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $9 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 121d
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 127d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 127d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 229d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 229d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 42¢ $49 231d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 244d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $99 265d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.82 · official $143.82 (match) · 59 history records