Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01e9…5250 other 246 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$210 (+1%) realized +$264 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate58%137W / 99L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$50
14 days−$27
30 days−$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$28
culture 41% −$576
sports 3% +$664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -26.3% -33.3% 60% 10% -4.6%
≤30d 49 -29.4% -36.1% 49% 8% -24.1%
≤90d 206 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 23% -9.8%
all 236 +18.3% +7.1% 58% 28% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 28% -9.1%
10% -3.2% 22% -17.8%
15% -12.5% 16% -25.8%
20% -21.1% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +54% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$44 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses137 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)236 / 246
History coverage136d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Will "The Polygamist: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 98¢ 99¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Ms. Rachel: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? No 95¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will "The American Experiment" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 72¢ 99¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+38%)
Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-65%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-51%)
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 7¢ 3¢ $25 $12 −$14 (-54%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 8¢ 1¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-88%)
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Will "I Will Find You" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will "The American Experiment" be the #2 global Netflix show this week Jun 28 $63 +$3 +5%
Will "Street Kings" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 28 $5 $0 +10%
Will "The Last Ship: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week Jun 28 $35 +$2 +6%
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 27 $83 +$8 +10%
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee Jun 27 $132 +$46 +35%
Will "Chris & Martina: The Final Set" be the top US Netflix movie this Jun 27 $19 +$1 +5%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 25 $33 −$30 -91%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -69%
Will "I Will Find You" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -88%
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 25 $181 +$52 +29%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 23 $195 $0 +0%
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be Jun 23 $25 +$1 +2%
Will "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" be the #2 US Jun 23 $44 −$7 -16%
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be Jun 23 $20 −$15 -77%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this we Jun 20 $20 +$16 +79%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Jun 17 $7 −$6 -91%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $112 +$1 +1%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $350 −$92 -26%
Will "Creed III" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will "GOAT" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the top US Netflix movie this week Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will "Poor Things" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 US Netflix movie this we Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie thi Jun 10 $23 −$13 -55%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 US Netflix movie this we Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $177 +$12 +6%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $114 −$52 -46%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $195 −$61 -31%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $123 −$123 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $78 −$78 -100%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this w Jun 03 $106 −$53 -50%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $121 −$58 -48%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 03 $133 −$88 -66%
Will "Dead Man's Wire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $355 +$5 +1%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $248 −$1 -0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 30 $98 −$92 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 2h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 96¢ $58 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 2h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 96¢ $24 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $18 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 95¢ $63 2h
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 7¢ $42 5h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 5h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? SELL No 100¢ $2 25h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? SELL No 100¢ $16 26h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? SELL No 100¢ $22 28h
Will "The American Experiment" be the #2 global Netflix show this week SELL No 100¢ $15 28h
Will "The American Experiment" be the #2 global Netflix show this week SELL No 100¢ $2 28h
Will "The American Experiment" be the #2 global Netflix show this week SELL No 100¢ $10 29h
Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will "The American Experiment" be the #2 global Netflix show this week SELL No 100¢ $10 30h
Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Will "Street Kings" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? SELL No 99¢ $5 31h
Will "The American Experiment" be the #2 global Netflix show this week SELL No 100¢ $15 31h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this we SELL No 4¢ $2 35h
Will "The Last Ship: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week SELL No 99¢ $37 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.08 · official $175.08 (match) · 2656 history records