Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x01e7…d932 crypto 343 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,545 (-7%) realized −$14,725 · open +$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%212W / 130L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$467
7 days+$239
14 days+$239
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15,267
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.2% -16.0% 59% 47% -3.6%
≤30d 17 -7.2% -16.0% 59% 47% -3.6%
≤90d 276 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 38% -25.9%
all 342 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 39% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 39% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 24% -24.1%
15% -29.0% 16% -31.4%
20% -35.9% 11% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$376 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$715
Realized−$14,725
Unrealized+$180
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses212 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 343
History coverage155d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? No 51¢ 68¢ $535 $715 +$180 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $259 +$20 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$21 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,024 −$44 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $205 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $751 +$465 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $65 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$34 +129%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $320 +$68 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $244 −$190 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $16 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $121 −$104 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $603 −$64 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9AM ET Apr 01 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 31 $150 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $326 +$37 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8AM ET Mar 31 $163 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 31 $204 +$79 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 30 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 30 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 30 $23 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 30 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 30 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 30 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 30 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 30 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 30 $33 −$12 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 30 $47 −$34 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 30 $150 −$48 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 30 $77 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 30 $143 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 30 $172 −$42 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 30 $360 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 30 $234 −$41 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 30 $515 +$34 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $517 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 49¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $122 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $39 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 32¢ $245 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 68¢ $511 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $513 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $65 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 84¢ $479 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 51¢ $619 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $715.24 · official $715.24 (match) · 2133 history records