Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01e6…9dfe politics 150 markets active 579d ago coverage 163d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,326,277 (+3385%) realized +$1,326,277 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%74W / 78L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 163d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% −$10,645
other 22% +$142
sports 5% +$711
crypto 3% +$19
culture 1% −$97
finance 1% +$26
world 1% +$102
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 152 +27.9% +15.7% 49% 43% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 43% -32.7%
10% +4.7% 39% -39.2%
15% -5.5% 32% -45.0%
20% -14.7% 22% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -140% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$259 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,326,277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses74 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 150
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$261
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Jun 20 $10 −$19 -197%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Hunter Biden sentenced to probation in gun case? Nov 18 $6 +$3 +45%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 18 $72 −$41 -57%
Will Trump appoint Karoline Leavitt for White House Press Secretary? Nov 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 18 $24 +$147 +613%
Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 18 $125 −$30 -24%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $80 −$39 -48%
Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State? Nov 15 $860 −$860 -100%
Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary? Nov 15 $24 +$12 +49%
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? Nov 15 $399 +$266 +67%
Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? Nov 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November? Nov 12 $591 −$591 -100%
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State? Nov 12 $610 +$342 +56%
Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary? Nov 11 $260 +$26 +10%
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State? Nov 09 $40 +$9 +24%
Will Trump nominate Robert O'Brien for Secretary of State? Nov 09 $21 +$4 +20%
Will Wisconsin be the tipping point state? Nov 06 $342 −$342 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? Nov 05 $45 +$112 +249%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Nov 04 $51 +$781 +1518%
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? Nov 04 $105 +$356 +340%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Nov 04 $2,421 −$1,164 -48%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Nov 04 $113 +$247 +219%
Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%? Nov 04 $1,828 +$475 +26%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Nov 04 $2,408 −$420 -17%
Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 04 $1,106 +$773 +70%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 04 $139 +$1,235 +887%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Nov 04 $208 +$675 +324%
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Nov 04 $7,628 −$6,559 -86%
Lewis vs. Diniz Nov 03 $5 $0 -9%
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 on Oct 18? Nov 02 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin new all time high before election? Nov 02 $139 +$581 +417%
Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? Oct 31 $112 +$32 +29%
Will the AP call the election by November 8? Oct 31 $158 −$37 -24%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 Oct 29 $245 +$6 +3%
Will Trump win 6 swing states? Oct 28 $224 −$29 -13%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 Oct 28 $178 −$143 -80%
Will Arizona be the tipping point state? Oct 18 $53 $0 -0%
Trump wins every swing state? Oct 12 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points? Oct 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 on Oct 11? Oct 11 $140 +$186 +133%
Will the VP debate have less than 40m viewers? Oct 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Haitian" during the debate? Oct 09 $78 −$78 -100%
Walz and Vance shake hands at first debate? Oct 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "abortion" during the debate? Oct 09 $63 −$63 -100%
Who will win the VP debate according to polls? Oct 09 $29 +$11 +39%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Oct 06 $62 +$38 +61%
Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election? Oct 02 $49 +$11 +23%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 01 $67 −$26 -39%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 01 $37 +$16 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hunter Biden sentenced to probation in gun case? SELL No 45¢ $8 578d
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes $31 578d
Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary? SELL Yes 19¢ $95 578d
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? SELL Yes $41 580d
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State? SELL No 95¢ $952 584d
Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary? SELL No 98¢ $287 586d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November? BUY No 16¢ $50 587d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State? SELL No 84¢ $50 587d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November? BUY No 15¢ $26 587d
Will Trump nominate Robert O'Brien for Secretary of State? SELL No 97¢ $26 587d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November? BUY No 16¢ $515 587d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $3 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary? BUY No 67¢ $4 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary? BUY No 67¢ $20 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $60 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $15 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $15 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $22 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $0 588d
Will Trump appoint Karoline Leavitt for White House Press Secretary? BUY No 25¢ $497 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $8 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $0 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $8 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $24 588d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $222 588d
Will Trump appoint Karoline Leavitt for White House Press Secretary? BUY No 25¢ $3 589d
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? BUY No 60¢ $22 589d
Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary? BUY Yes 25¢ $125 589d
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State? BUY No 61¢ $498 589d
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State? BUY No 61¢ $112 589d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records