Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01e3…4686 crypto 470 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (247 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,039 (+17%) realized +$4,024 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%315W / 612L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day246.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,768
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (247 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 853 -55.5% -59.8% 31% 31% -27.0%
≤30d 927 -51.1% -55.8% 34% 30% -22.0%
≤90d 927 -51.1% -55.8% 34% 30% -22.0%
all 927 -51.1% -55.8% 34% 30% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover246.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.8% 30% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -60.0% 24% -29.4%
15% -63.9% 15% -36.2%
20% -67.4% 3% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$4,024
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses315 / 612
Open positions2
Markets (closed)927 / 470
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day246.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 927 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 80¢ 94¢ $73 $85 +$12 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 76¢ 81¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$24 -107%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$21 -147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$46 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $14 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $18 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.34 · official $111.19 · 3500 history records