Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01e3…c67f weather 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-3%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 51 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 51 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -14.6%
all 51 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 0% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 0% -22.8%
15% -29.9% 0% -30.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $52 −$11 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $54 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $39 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$13 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $18 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $55 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $99 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $70 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $75 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 56¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 50¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 51¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $27 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 55¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL No 54¢ $26 22h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 56¢ $28 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 53¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL No 46¢ $22 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 54¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 53¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 47¢ $24 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 53¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? SELL No 48¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? SELL No 49¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 50¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL No 49¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL No 49¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records