Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01df…19b5 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1
world 29% −$13
sports 11% −$11
politics 8% $0
finance 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -4.7% -13.8% 8% 0% -13.1%
≤90d 12 -4.7% -13.8% 8% 0% -13.1%
all 47 -3.0% -12.2% 26% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -11.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -20.0%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage260d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -24%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $11 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $55 −$9 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $4 $0 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $32 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 24 $15 −$11 -70%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $25 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $23 $0 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $22 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 06 $23 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $2 $0 -10%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $3 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $40 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $44 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $51 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $51 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $46 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $46 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $51 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $48 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $51 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 12d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $10 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $1 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $35 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records